Monday, June 23, 2008

Why John McCain and the GOP will not win the election

There is a lot of speculation as to whether John McCain can win the election and become the next President of the United States. That answer is clear to me and should be clear to many others. In the news recently there have been many stories as to whether McCain can swing the vote. The media blackout of Ron Paul seems to be over, with multiple interviews and appearances on CNN over the past few days since he has suspended his presidential campaign. The news hosts all ask Dr. Paul the same thing, will you endorse McCain and will your supporters vote for John McCain? The answer to to Paul endorsing McCain is always the same, an overwhelming NO. As to whether or not Paul supporters will now vote for McCain, that answer is easy to know if one looks at the many online communities of Ron Paul supporters. The new campaign that Ron Paul recently started called Campaign for Liberty already has 60,000 members and he is trying to get 100,000 by September 2nd, a number that will likely be exceeded long before the goal date. The blog on that site as well as many other sites shows a trend of literally no support for John McCain. The movement is largely split into three categories, those who are going to vote for Bob Barr from the libertarian party, those who are going to vote for Chuck Baldwin from the Constitution Party, and those who are going to write in Ron Paul even if their votes do not count. This has the GOP as well as John McCain sweating. With Ron Paul's fund raising ability, his new campaign, and the fact that he can now receive donations from people who donated to his presidential campaign because he suspended the campaign and started a new one that can be used to fund other like minded candidates Dr. Paul and his supporters are a force to be reckoned with. If (read: when) the Campaign for Liberty reaches 100,000 people, which at the rate of acquisition so far will happen in a few weeks, it will be able to raise millions in just a short amount of time. If each of the 100,000 members donates just $20 it will add 2 million dollars to the chest. We know from the money bombs people will donate much more than $20 and some will even donate up to the maximum amount of $5000 a year.

Money is not the only thing that has the GOP and John McCain worried. With Ron Paul having 1.1 million people who actually voted for him thus far, those 1.1 million votes could be the thing that gets John McCain into the White House, or the thing that leaves him looking from behind that large cast iron fence. With many Republicans voting for Ron Paul because of his stance on the war, and the fact that there are two other viable options in other parties it is not likely McCain will get any of those votes. Some of those votes may even go to Obama because of Obama's war stance, and with Obama leading McCain in some states by double digits, that is not good news for the McCain camp of the GOP.

The GOP does have a chance at winning however. If they abandon John McCain and support Ron Paul as the true conservative that he is, the GOP will have a guaranteed 1.1 million votes for Ron Paul, not to mention the fact that there are many democrats who said that they also would have voted for Ron Paul if he was the nominee. In fact, earlier in this campaign there was a sort of coalition between the Obama grassroots people and the Paul grassroots people when there were accusations of voter fraud. And Ron Paul's anti-war stance coupled with his plans for a sound economy could sway some Democrats to vote Republican. At the very least, those Republicans who are refusing to vote for McCain and will vote for Obama would certainly come back and vote for Ron Paul. Dr. Paul appeals to the strong conservative base and to the moderates. John McCain has no chance in winning this election, but the GOP on the other hand can win and the process is fairly simple; ditch John McCain and endorse Ron Paul.

If the GOP does stay with McCain as it will, we will be playing Hail to the Chief for President Barack Obama. Maybe Obama should not change that seal resembling the presidential seal just yet.


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